Is Mali military intervention imminent?: Voice of Russia

I think it is important to recall the listeners that this decision actually dates back to the 27th of March. This means that a week after the coup in Mali, the coup d??tat lead by the military junta, ECOWAS already took a decision and asked the stand-by force to actually prepare for an eventual deployment. So, all this of course happens on the background of a military insurgency that started at the beginning of the year, mid January, when the Tuareg rebels took over parts of the north of Mali.

And as the Malian Army was being defeated and withdrew from some of the northern parts of the territory and the rebellion took control of the most the country, the coup happened and then as we know some armed and terrorist groups actually took over the territory that was taken by the Tuareg coup. And now of the Malian territory, 2\3 actually of the Malian territory is under the control of armed terrorist groups. So, this decision by the Economic Community of West African States happens on this background. But already since the end of March they have started to prepare for this deployment.

Who are the rebels now?

The north of Mali is currently occupied by three main groups, and although we don?t speak much about the Tuareg rebels who started the uprising, they are still present on the territory. The MNLA is this Tuareg rebel group that started the uprising. And then on top of them you have a group called Ansar Dine which is mainly present in the region of Kidal. You have a group called MUJWA ? Movement for Unity and Jihad in Western Africa. And you have of course Al Qaeda and the Islamic Maghreb AQIM which are also present.

Do you connect the recent upsurge of violence with the situation in Libya?

A lot of the rebels who conducted the earlier uprising in January are said to be the former fighters who were part of Gaddafi?s Army and who then, when Gaddafi was defeated, retreated and went back to Mali.

If we look at Libya ? the international involvement has not actually brought calm to the country.

I think first it is important to know that this is the first one ? the decision of deploying troops. There is another step which is going to happen next week, this week in fact, on the 30th of November the Peace and Security Council of the African Union has to approve the plan and the decision that was taken by ECOWAS heads of states. Once the Peace and Security Council of the AU has approved, they have to pass this demand onto the UN Secretary General who then has to produce a report. And so, there are still many steps before we can actually witness a deployment. And in the process of course some changes might happen to the concept of operations that was agreed upon, minor changes probably but still there can be some changes here and there so that everyone within the UN Security Council is comfortable with the plan.

As you are aware the threats of a military intervention has already somehow accelerated the procedures for mediation and negotiations. And so as the track become eminent we might see more on the side of the political process that is going on. And I think this was part of the bet also in threatening to deploy a military intervention. In terms of the intervention itself ? it is obviously something that has risks. It is an operation that has to be conducted in a very organized, concerted way with clear rules of engagement, with the partnership of the neighbouring countries because otherwise it could lead to a military adventure with unpredictable consequences.

Is the ECOWAS capable of carrying out this operation in this order?

As you know it is not the ECOWAS alone. In the last few communiqu?s the military intervention was described as an international intervention conducted by Africa. We know that the military command will be led by an ECOWAS country, this is what has been decided during the summit, but the fact that it is an international military intervention means that other partners will probably also bring support ? the French, the Germans and I think there are other countries. I know the EU has actually started an evaluation to the rebuild the capacity of the Malian Army because as you know they want to be first, this was part of the tension in the discussions over the past few months. And the Malians want to have the lead on this operation.

So the ECOWAS decision for an international military intervention comes in support of the Malian Army. And although it is led by the ECOWAS ? it will be an international military force. And so, we are still waiting to have the clear composition of it and to know where the troops will come from. We are also waiting to know what kind of support the rest of the international community will bring to this force. But it is not going to be a fully ECOWAS composed force.

Source: http://english.ruvr.ru/2012_11_13/Is-Mali-military-intervention-imminent/

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